Handicapping the 2009 Hockey East Quarterfinals

It’s tournament time in Hockey East!  The brackets are set and 8 clubs are set to do battle and see who will be making it to the Garden to be crowned Hockey East’s 25th tournament champion.  A preview of the Boston University / Maine series will be coming later on, so be on the lookout for that.  However, there are 6 other clubs that will be taking to the ice this weekend!  Let’s take a look at how those teams match up, and try to provide a bit of prediction on who I think will be playing on Causeway St. next weekend.

#2 Northeastern v. #7 Massachusetts

This is probably the one matchup that Northeastern did not want for  quarterfinal series.  The Minutemen currently hold the season series lead on NU, 2-1.  This includes a big win at Matthews that came less than a month ago.  Over the past few season the two clubs have developed some bad blood, playing some very intense games.

Offensively, I would give Masachusetts the edge.  Leading scorer James Marcou is always dangerous, and the top scorers for Massachusetts are very deadly.  That’s not to say Northeastern cannot score, but rather that the Minutemen have more guys at the top who will constantly be a threat.  NU will have to check Marcou, Berry, and Quirk very closely, as those guys can break out quickly.  Massachusetts also has a tendancy to come out big against teams that are in the top 10, with the small discrepency coming only against BU.

What ultimately will determine this series (in my opinion) is goaltending.  There, Northeastern has a very big edge, as Brad Thiessen is an absolute rock in net for the Huskies.  With the intensity ratched up that much more, I would take Thiessen over either of the UMass netminders.  Either Dainton or Meyers will have to steal a game for the Minutemen to win this series.  With the home crowd advantage at Matthews, I’m not sure that will happen.  It might go three games, but it seems to me that Notheastern really wants to get to the Garden for a potential rematch with BU.  As a Terrier fan, I’m not sure I like that idea that much, but in this series anyway, Northeastern takes care of business.

Predicted Winner: Northeastern

#3 New Hampshire v. #6 Boston College

Now this is a huge matchup of perennial Hockey East powerhouses. Of course, BC is currently on a down year, but there is no denying the talent that is on that Eagle squad.  However, they will be making their way up to the Whittemore center, certainly not a visitor friendly rink.  Oh.. and that New Hampshire squad is no slouch either.  Featuring 1st round pick James van Riemsdyk, this looks to be one of the most difficult quarterfinal matchups, with two teams that one could have picked to be playing in the championship game.

Offensively and defensively, the two clubs are virtually identical.  The only thing that separates the two is the record really.  New Hampshire was a much more opportunistic team throughout the season, and it definitely shows in their record.   However, both teams feature an identical 3-1 record in their past 4 games, with the latter two games for each club being against elite teams in Hockey East.  Just looking at the numbers does no good when trying to pick a winner.

In this series, I’d have to go with whatever team takes advantage first.  New Hampshire does have home ice advantage, but against a Jerry York coached team, that might not matter much.  It will likely ride on the goaltender who shuts the door on the other team better.  John Muse has been a workhorse for Boston College, and that might be their downfall here.  He has had little rest over the past two seasons, and UNH’s high powered offense will test him.  This series should go 3 games, as I don’t see a sweep being possible here.  This’ll be my upset series though… BC shocks UNH at home.  Last year, BC beat UNH when it mattered… and I think it’ll happen again.

Predicted Winner: Boston College

#4 Vermont v. #5 UMass-Lowell

The River Hawks travel to the Gut for a two game series this weekend.  Probably one of the most difficult road trips to make in Hockey East.  The Gut is always sold out, and the could should be loud and proud in their support of the Catamounts.

The River Hawks and Catamounts are very similar statistically, which seems like it’s a trend for most Hockey East teams.  The two clubs even split the season series.  My big concern for the Hawks is that they seem to be very unpredictable, playing very very well one night, and laying an egg the next night.  It doesn’t even seem to matter who they play… it all depends on which team comes to play.  A concern for Vermont is that their team defense hasn’t been as good as it’s been in previous years, and if their offense falters, they could be in for a long series.

In the end, it will come down to a matchup between UML’s goaltenders and the UVM offense.  Whichever is hotter should win this game, and I find it very hard to pick against the Cats, especially since they’re playing in Burlington.  The Cats make it back to the Garden, setting up a potential rematch against BU.  Revenge game, anyone?

Predicted Winner: Vermont

There you have it, predictions from three of the four quarterfinal series in Hockey East for 2009.  You heard it here first!  I think, anyway.  In any case, it should be a very entertaining weekend of hockey for all of the participating Hockey East schools.  Unfortunately, it is spring break for several of the schools, but that gives the more casual fan a much better chance to be able to catch one of these games.  So, if you’re looking for something to do this weekend and happen to be near one of the home schools, take a trip on by.  You should be able to catch some great college hockey.

For another perspective, be sure to check out Scott’s Preview and Picks for the 2009 Hockey East Quarterfinals.

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