2009 NCAA Tournament: Frozen Four Game Previews

It’s almost time.  By this time tomorrow, we’ll know which teams will be playing for all the marbles.  It’s FROZEN FOUR time!  Bemidji State, Boston University, Miami, and Vermont have all been preparing and recovering for the past week.  They’ll hit the ice at the Verizon Center in Washington DC, ready to face the hurdles before them, and hopefully punch their ticket to the national championship game.  Let’s take one last look at these four participants before the games finally get played.  Get excited, folks!

Game 1 (5 PM, ESPN2) Bemidji State v. Miami

Bemidji State Beavers

The Beavers have been a true Cinderella story this tournament.  They took down powerhouse Notre Dame and ECAC power Cornell with relative ease.  Their top line is one of the greatest, fastest threats in all of college hockey.  These guys really showed that the CHA can be a force.  Tom Serratore has gotten the best out of his players when he’s needed to.  Matt Dalton has been a rock all tournament long so far.  The biggest factor, besides being the obvious underdogs, is that the Beavers are unable to capitalize on their momentum.  Serratore will have to hope he can bring back the team that played so well two weekends ago.  That being said, it’s feasible that the Beavers will continue their run right into the national championship game.  The WCHA will definitely be thinking twice when they vote on whether or not to accept Bemidji after what this team has done so far this year.

The Beavers will need to play very smart hockey (as they’ve done so far) in order to take down Miami.  Miami is a very defensive minded team, and will be looking to shut down Bemidji’s first line, a line that proved deadly in the Midwest Regional.  Serratore and his club will need to find a way to overcome that, perhaps by getting some scoring from the other lines.  Dalton will also need to be on top of his game, and limit the mistakes, play his angles, and control the puck when he needs to.

Miami Redhawks

After having their season ended by Boston College in dramatic fashion a year ago, Miami came into this years’ tournament an unlikely contender.  They started the season off very well, but tapered off towards the end, losing in their first round series in the CCHA Tournament.  Overshadowed by Michigan and Notre Dame all year, it is Enrico Blasi and his Redhawks that have advanced to the Frozen four.  It hasn’t been an easy path, as they needed to take on a very tough Denver team.  Of course, the Redhawks made it look easy, taking advantage of a Denver team that looked like it needed an extra day to prepare.  The Redhawks then held off Duluth, the team I picked to make it out of the West Regional, in a very tight 2-1 contest.

The Redhawks have played excellent defense thus far in the tournament, giving up just 3 goals.  Miami will hope to continue their shut down defense, and must try to neutralize the top line of Bemidji State.  Overall, the Redhawks are the more talented team, and if they can stick to their game plan, they should be able to contain the Beavers.  However, it will be up to the forwards to take advantage of their chances.  Matt Dalton has played excellent recently, and will be tough to beat.

Game 1 Prediction

Should I even bother?  I don’t know.  On paper, Miami should win this game, but if we went by paper, then the tournament would already be decided, and that’s why we play the games.  That being said, I think that the time off will hurt Bemidji more than it helps, and Miami will take advantage of their chances on the big national stage.  I say the Redhawks will advance, 3-1. My pick is Miami, final answer.

Game #2 (8:30 pm, ESPN2) Boston University v. Vermont

Vermont

This years’ edition of the Vermont Catamounts has swayed away from what they’ve been known for for the past few years.  A strong defense based around an excellent goalie has been the calling card of the Cats.  They were never really known for being a high scoring team.  That has changed, especially with the emergence of Viktor Stalberg.  That’s not to say there’s no defense or goaltending… I’m sure Patrick Cullity and Rob Madore will have something to say about that.  Vermont does have the honor of being the only team to defeat Boston University twice this season.  They’ve actually accounted for 33% of the Terriers’ losses…. neato!  That weekend, however, proved to be a turning point for BU, and I’m sure that Kevin Sneddon will not let his team think that they can beat BU again without trying too hard because they’ve done it before.   Anyway, Vermont advanced by crusing by Yale, then winning a thriller in Double OT over the Air Force Falcons on a shot that went through the net.  Have to admit, I want to see the flyboys make it, but it wasn’t meant to be.

The Cats will need to try to strike quickly, and beat Millan early, as he seems to get better and better as the game goes on.  Vermont will also need to try to revert back a few years and play excellent defense, as BU has very very fast forwards, and defensemen who like to step up into the play.  For a game plan that could work… they should probably review the tape of the BU / UNH game at the Northeast Regional last week.

Boston University

Ah yes, my beloved Boston University Terriers.  Undoubtedly one of the top teams all season long, BU has almost always managed to find a way to win.  After tough wins in the Hockey East Tournament, BU cruised to victory over Ohio State before getting a lucky bounce against UNH in the Northeast Regional.  UNH definitely played better in that game, but good teams always find a way to win.  For sure, BU will be looking to seek revenge against a team that beat them twice in the friendly confines of Agganis Arena this season.  The pressure is all on the shoulders of the Terriers, who are the clear favorites to take home the title this year.  At this point of the season though, anything can happen, and BU will need to bring it’s best game to take down Vermont.

The key for Terriers will be special teams.  The power play needs to find it’s groove again, to take advantage of a Vermont ‘D’ corps that isn’t quite as strong as in years past.  However, Vermont is much more explosive on the offensive end this year, so BU’s defensemen will need to be careful of breakaways.  There were way too many in the game against UNH.  Again, staying out of the penalty box is something the Terriers will need to do as well… the PK is good, but at this point of the season you don’t want to take too many chances on the shorthand.

Game 2 Prediction

I could try to predict this game, but like I did for the Northeast Regional, I’m going to let this one play itself out.  This is definitely the matchup that I think will produce the next national champion, but I have been wrong before.  Regardless, its going to be a great game, and I can’t wait to catch the end of it.  I’ll be sure to watch after I get out of the Bruins game tomorrow (or tonight, rather).  Go BU!!!

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2009 NCAA Tournament: The Frozen Four

I’ve taken this time to digest what’s happened in college hockey over the past few weeks.  Well.. to be honest, I got into another car accident so I’ve been trying to deal with that, and working a lot also.  But its been a crazy few weeks for college hockey and college hockey fans.  Making the trip to Manchester, I don’t think I’ve ever watched so much college hockey.  We literally drove around to find places to watch more, and it was a ton of fun.  Add to that the two BU victories, and a trip to the Frozen Four for the first time ever for the Terriers.  It was a great weekend.  Continuing on, it’s still one and done the rest of the way, but the usual cast of characters are definitely not there.  The way the tournament has shaped up so far has provided one of the most interesting Frozen Fours to date.

Let’s recap on some of the great surprises of the tournament so far:

• Air Force took down #3 Michigan in the first game of the 2009 Tournament.
• Miami took it to Denver in the West Regional, taking out the #4 Pioneers.
• Bemidji State smoked Notre Dame, 5-1, in the Midwest Regional.
• Minnesota Duluth tied Princeton with 0.8 seconds left in their game.  Then proceeded to win in overtime.
• UNH tied North Dakota with 0.1 second left in their game.  Then proceeded to win in overtime.
• After a nearly 20 minute review, a shot by Vermont that went through the net proved to be the game winner, knocking Air Force out and punching Vermont’s ticket to the frozen four.  This review happened 5 minutes after the initial shot…
• Bemidji State destroyed Cornell 4-1, punching the first ever ticket to the Frozen Four by a non-big 4 conference team.
• Miami held off Duluth… making it 2 #4 seeds in the Frozen Four.

BU, actually, was the only team to hold serve.  However, it was just barely, as New Hampshire coach Dick Umile formulated an excellent defensive plan, and his team executed it nearly to perfection, keeping the game tied at 1 until an unfortunate re-direction by Senior Jerry Pollastrone put the puck in his own net. With only 14.4 seconds left.  That’s how close it was for the Terriers.  One lucky bounce and either one of the two teams could be in the Frozen Four.

That being said, BU is the overwhelming favorite to win it all now.  However, they by no means have the easiest road to a title.  The Terriers next face #9 Vermont, the only team to defeat them twice this year.  Both of those victories happened at Agganis Arena as well, and only weeks after BU thumped Vermont 7-2 at the Gut.  Another interesting tidbit: Both of these teams are undefeated at neutral sites…. one of those teams will have that streak ended for this season.

The strangest thing is that there will definitely be a #4 seed in the championship game.  I don’t know the last time that happened (or if it ever happened before), but it shows that there really is parity in college hockey.  Any one team can win on any given night.  I don’t think it’s possible that anyone would have picked these four teams to be duking it out for the national championship.  My bracket was busted after the first night.  The only one regional that turned out the way I thought it would was the Northeast Regional.  Luckily, it turned out the way I wanted, and I got to see some excellent hockey…. despite some aggravation provided by BU’s own fans, but I’ll leave that to be discussed at a later time.

In about 4 days time, we’ll have crowned a new champion in Division 1 college hockey.  I may be there for it, I may not be.  But the excitement is building, and I can’t wait.  Stay tuned for more.. as we preview the games, and reflect back on the season as it winds to an end.

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2009 NCAA Tournament: Northeast Regional Preview

It’s roughly 11 and a half hours till the first teams will hit the ice at the Verizon Wireless Arena for the 2009 NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Northeast Regional.  This, in my opinion was one of the more difficult regionals to be in.  There are the three traditional powerhouses in BU, UNH and UND, and a team that is probably better than your typical #4 seed in Ohio State.  Of course, after seeing the results of yesterday’s games, we can see that anything can happen.  Congrats to the Flyboys at the Air Force Academy, the Redhawks of Miami, the Catamounts of Vermont, and the Bulldogs of UMD for advancing to the next stage in the tournament.  Excellent games today, and I wish I could’ve seen them instead of just listening.  With the upsets in mind, let’s take a look at the teams in the Northeast regional.

Game #1:  #2 North Dakota (24-14-4, 17-7-4 WCHA) v. #3 New Hampshire (19-12-5, 15-8-4 Hockey East)

This game features two clubs that I have always associated with high flying offenses, hitting hard, and having very skilled players.  Well, that’s no different this year for the Sioux and the Wildcats.  Both teams are averaging over three goals a game.  The difference this year will be in net.  Freshman Brad Eidsness of the Sioux and Sophomore Brian Foster of the Wildcats will be tested a lot this weekend.  Both are coming off disappointing ends to their respective conference seasons and are looking to redeem themselves in Manchester.

For New Hampshire to win this game, they’ll need to harness the excitement of the home crowd, and make the most of their power play opportunities, a component of their game that just hasn’t been that strong this year.  They’re struggling big time at 11.5%.  The Sioux don’t have the greatest penalty kill, so the Wildcats should do their best to take advantage of that.  For the Sioux, it will be getting out to an early start, using their big defensemen and balanced scoring to wear out the ‘Cats.  Personally, I think that people are already counting UNH out, but I think they can pull it off.

Game #2: #1 Boston University (31-6-4, 18-5-4 Hockey East) v. #4 Ohio State (23-14-4m 13-11-4-3 CCHA)

On paper, BU is the clear favorite in this game, especially with their stifiling defense giving up less than 2 goals per game.  BU’s offense is also a little more high powered, averaging nearly 4 goals per game, led by talented centers Colin Wilson (15-35-50), and Nick Bonino (16-28-44).  However, as Air Force and Miami showed, you cannot overlook the #4 seed, and Coach John Markell is sure to let his team know that it’s possible to take down a team like BU in a one and done situation.  Coach Parker is sure to let his boys know the same.  BU has been sluggish in their last few weeks, but have still find a way to win, which is a trademark of a good team.  However, at this point in the season, that’s not going to cut it.

For the Buckeyes to take this game, they’ll need to do what Maine did to BU a few weeks ago.  Do what BU does, but do it Better.  It’s possible to catch the Terriers looking in the mirror, and trapping to take away the transition game from the Terriers.  Ohio State will need to make the most of their opportunities, and convert on the power play.  BU is one of the most penalized teams in the nation.  For BU, they’ll need to draw on their experience, skill, and speed to attack the young Buckeyes, and try to take away the game before Ohio can settle into a trapping style game.  Staying out of the box will be key for BU (I’m talking to you, Eric Gryba), so that the skill players can remain fresh for the 5 on 5 and Power Play situations.

Predictions:

I’m not going to try to pick a winner in the BU game, as its been too crazy tonight with all the upsets.  I’m worried that the Terriers will take this game too lightly and look towards the “stronger” competition in UND and UNH.  That would be a huge mistake.  As for game 1, I’m going to say that UNH will pull it out, and prove people to people they can win at the Verizon Wireless Arena.

I’ll be heading to Manchester in a few hours… and settling in at Murphy’s Tap Room at about 12:30 pm.  If you’ve read this, I’ll probably be there before the games both days, so feel free to come by and say hi!  Go Terriers!

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2009 NCAA Tournament: Going to Manchester!

The BU Terriers have shown this year that they’re a special team.  They’ve won every single tournament they’ve played in this year, won 31 games, scored a boatload of goals, and have found ways to win when it seemed impossible.  As such, the Terriers have been rewarded with the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and will be travelling to nearby Manchester, New Hampshire for the Northeast Regional in the tournament.  The Buckeyes of Ohio State will be meeting the Terriers there, and one thing can be said for sure:  None of the previous accomplishments for BU mean anything at this moment.  There is one title left to be won, and it begins on Saturday for BU.

Luckily, I’ll be travelling to Manchester to provide some coverage for those of you who read this site.  I’m really excited, and extra pumped that BU will be going to the closest regional possible.  Look for a preview of the BU game to be coming soon.  For now, let’s take a look at how the rest of the Tournament looks… and most notably, the other teams in the Northeast Regional.

Here’s what we’ve got for the Bracket, starting out West:

West Regional @ Mariucci Arena in Minneapolis, Minnesota

#1 Denver v. #4 Miami

#2 Minnesota-Duluth v. #3 Princeton

There is definitely a good mix in this regional  Two WCHA teams will definitely help the atmosphere here.  I like the way that Minnesota Duluth has been playing, and I’ve picked them to come out of this regional.  I don’t think that even Zane Kalemba is matching the play of Alex Stalock right now, and Duluth is really hot.  One factor that could play against the Bulldogs is the sheer amount of games that they’ve been playing recently, but fatigue didn’t seem to be a factor in the WCHA championship game against Denver.  A Denver - Duluth championship game is what I expect to see, and the atmosphere should be electric.  Minnesota fans already proved that they’ll be cheering for the hometown team, so it looks to be a very hostile Regional for Denver.  Nothing against Miami, as I think they’re the strongest #4 seed, but Denver is better, and shouldn’t have a problem with Blasi’s Redhawks.

Predicted Frozen Four Participant: Minnesota-Duluth

Midwest Regional @ Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan

#1 Notre Dame v. #4 Bemidji State

#2 Northeastern v. #3 Cornell

This regional features some very very good defensive teams.  Northeastern’s Brad Thiessen and Cornell’s Ben Scrivens should put up a clinic on good goaltending this weekend.  That game will come down to special teams, and I’m going to take Cornell over Northeastern because the Huskies have been taking untimely penalties recently (Much like BU), and Cornell should be able to convert.  Carter Hutton of Lowell seemed to stone NU pretty well, and Scrivens is better than Hutton.  If the Huskies are going to win this game, they’ll need to stay out of the box.  Thiessen, as usual, should do his part.  Will his offense help him out?

In the other game, we’ve got CHA champ Bemidji State, and CCHA Champ Notre Dame, the #2 overall seed in the tournament.  Sorry Beaver fans… it’s been done before, but this Notre Dame team is good…. really good.  I don’t see them having any problem at all with the Beavers.  I’ll tell ya though, if Bemidji manages to pull it off… it would be amazing.  Still… the Irish will take care of business, and should move on to the Frozen Four.  The second night in this regional should be very close, no matter who plays.

Predicted Frozen Four Participant: Notre Dame

East Regional @ The Arena at Harbor Yard in Bridgeport, Connecticut

#1 Michigan v. #4 Air Force

#2 Yale v. #3 Vermont

This regional might actually have the best games all weekend.  I’d love to get a chance to go watch the flyboys duke it out with the Wolverines.  Air Force has been such a story this year, especially with Hobey Finalist Jacques Lamoreaux and the incredible 13-0-0 start.  The Falcons have taken a dip since that, but they have shown they can be very competitive.  If Andrew Volkening can stand strong, the Falcons are a huge offensive threat and should play a good game.  Michigan’s defense will need to be strong.  I still think the Wolverines can get it done, but of the 1 v 4 matchups, I think this has the biggest potential for an upset.

The second set of teams are two teams that have exploded this year.  ECAC Champion Yale, and Vermont.  Vermont is enjoying one of its best offensive seasons ever, led by Viktor Stalberg, a Hobey Finalist and the leading goal scorer in Hockey East.  Yale, on the other hand, has been on a tear through the ECAC, winning the tournament. The Bulldogs also have the advantage of playing near home, which should help their chances greatly.  This regional should be well attended, as Vermont fans travel well.

Predicted Frozen Four Participant: Michigan

Yes, I know that I went fairly safe with my picks… but the top teams are just so good this year that it’s tough to go against them.  I did pick one upset… Duluth, because they’re playing so well right now.

Just counting the days till I head off to Manchester… stay tuned for more.

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Bridgeport or Manchester: A Regional Dilemma

White it is looking forward a bit, it is pretty safe to say that Boston University will be making it to the NCAA tournament.  Running through the pairwise, there really is no way that the Terriers can be excluded.  However, something that can still be determined is WHERE the Terriers will be going to play their regional game(s).  Right now, it’s pretty much narrowed down to the two Eastern Regionals, the Northeast Regional in Manchester, NH, and the East Regional in Bridgeport, CT.

Reading the USCHO fan forum (which I highly suggest if you’re interested in college hockey), there is some pretty intense debate as to where BU fans would prefer to go for Regionals.  There are good arguements for each, but in the end it will be what the committee thinks will be best for the gate.  My personal opinion is that the Terriers should go to Manchester.  It’s a closer ride, and I think that it will be easier for a lot of BU fans to make it there.  That being said, there is a large group of BU alumni in the Tri-State area that would be able to make the Regional in Bridgeport.

Another reason why I’d prefer Manchester over Bridgeport is the town.  Nothing against Bridgeport, but I’ve been there before and its not the nicest place to be.  I’ve never been to Manchester, but I think that it’d be a better place to go.  C’mon NCAA.. help me out with gas costs here!

A lot also depends on how the other Hockey East schools fare.  With New Hampshire as a host in the Northeast Regional, they are already a guarantee to be in Manchester if they make it (which they should).  If they drop to a #4 seed, that will be an issue, as the committee likes to avoid inter-conference matchups in the first round of the NCAAs.  In that case, I would suspect BU to be in Bridgeport.  UNH did not help this by losing their series to Boston College last weekend, not that I’m bitter about that or anything!

In the end, I’m grateful to be in the Tournament.  This is a strong BU team, and I hope that they make the most of it.  A National Championship is not out of reach this year.  Let’s make it happen.

Where would you rather have BU placed?  Discuss in the comments.. I’d love to hear what you think!

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Why I Have a Quiet Confidence About Tonight

Well, for starters, I am one of the few people out there who picked Lowell in two straight, and I nailed that.

But seriously, while I have a nervous energy about me knowing that in the same way that Appalachian State CAN beat a Lloyd Carr-coached Michigan team in college football team, anytime young men align on opposing sides – yes – conceivably, any result is possible tonight.

And while I certainly underestimated the talent and ability to execute of this Maine squad (and probably most importantly their sheer will and unqualified doggedness NOT to have their season come to an end NOR to have a senior class pass through having never once beaten Boston University), the reason that BU will be playing in the semifinals for the fifth straight year, and the reason that in four of those seasons it took a third and final game before BU won its quarterfinal and advanced to where they fully expect to be and will be next weekend: At the Garden in Boston playing a very stout Lowell squad for the chance to take on the winner of the semi between BC and the winner of tonight’s rubber match between UMASS and Northeastern.

Coach Parker himself went on record last night as saying that before the season this team had six goals, so far they have achieved four of the four, and despite the lackluster performances of the last two evenings he expects that they will be able to advance to the semis – and by no means is he diminishing the amazing run of play that Maine has had over the last 48 hours – and here is why.

To be honest, despite putting together an impressive winning streak, losing last night was in some ways the best thing that could happen to Terrier squad and here is why: The team has been playing rigid and uninspired hockey since the tie at Maine following the first game of that two game series in Orono. And while a good team goes out every night with the expectation of winning, the truth is this team has been playing tighter than Marie Osmond or Valerie Bertinelli PRIOR to joining their weight loss clubs trying to squeeze her way into her “skinny jeans”.

As I just eluded, this team started the season with the goal of winning the tournaments it played in, winning the regular season Beanpot, winning the Hockey East Regular Season Title, winning the Hockey East Tournament Title, and winning the NCAA Title. How have we fared so far? Icebreaker - Check; Denver Cup – Check; The Beanpot – Check; Hockey East Regular Season Title – Check. That is four for four, with two to go. Matt Gilroy and Coach Parker spoke to the team before the season and listed these goals. They have achieved a perfect four for four so far, and with their backs against the wall FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL SEASON tonight there is not a better combination of Coaching and player talent and desire than I would rather have than Coach Parker, and a roster full of Hockey players who shine bright in these types of situation. Led by Mattie Gilroy and fellow Captain John McCarthy, along with future NHL stars like Colin Wilson and Kevin Shattenkirk; coupled nicely by top flight playmakers in Chris Higgins and Nick Bonino and David Warsofsky, and combined with finishers like Jason Lawrence and a reborn Brandon Yip, and I think that this team will relish the challenge of having been outcoached, outhustled, outperformed on Special Teams, showed mediocrity at best in the goal, and they will want to prove to America, but more importantly, prove to Coach and the Agganis faithful that this truly is a team of destiny and that having the ALBATROSS of a winning streak loosen the vice grip on their creativity and their ability to convert at ridiculous levels on the Power Play, that is why I am confident that you can take the last two nights, throw them out the window and this team will do whatever it takes to get to next Friday ON THE ICE in the semis, and the only way to do that is to win BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY tonight, which indeed they will.

The pressure under which this team has thrived all season, the student body being back from break, the players knowing that they let one get away from them last night when they should have buried Maine once gaining a three to one lead, the hapless PK and despite some beautiful passing and execution the inability to finish on the Power Play is not gonna happen for a second straight night at Agganis. So BU might win Big, they might win easily, or they might need a game-tying goal in the final minutes to find a way to send it to overtime and win it their. But I leave for the game tonight knowing that with a SENIOR CLASS led by Messrs. Gilroy, Higgins, Yip, Lawrence, McCarthy, and Smolinsky will not allow this team’s Hockey East run to come to an end.

Scott Martineau is a Regular contributor to Let’s Go Terriers.  You can find him on Twitter at SCOTTCMARTINEAU.

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#1 BU v. Maine: Hockey East Quarterfinal Preview

#1 Boston University Terriers vs. #8 The University of Maine Black Bears

Boston University has been involved as an eight seed that upset a one seed in the quarters previously and The Terriers have also been a one seed upset by an eighth seeded Merrimack.  Not this year, not this time, not this Team.  It ain’t gonna happen.

To show just what different directions these programs are going in, Maine has been on an eight game winless streak that started exactly a month ago when BU went to Orono and took a win handily over the Black Bears on Friday, February 13th when Maine raised the white flag less than a minute into the second period as Colin Wilson paced BU with a goal 16 seconds into the first period and topped by his second and the team’s fourth on a goal 11 seconds into period number two.  Maine pulled starting goalie Scott Darling at that point as the route was on with a 4 goal deficit. Over the next 26 minutes of play, the teams traded a total of four goals, and after Maine cashed in on a power play cutting the lead back to four at 6 to 2, Kieran Millan came out of the pipes for the first time since his freshman record 18-1-1 start had become a multi-game starting streak to get Grant Rollheiser some much needed work.  BU won easily by a final score of seven to two.  For the second game of the two straight played in Orono, Maine and BU both made wholesale changes.  Both starting netminders were given the night off and Rollheiser was granted (no pun intended) his first start since the injury that was the precipitant of Millan taking over the number one goalie chores as opposed to the rotation they used for the first third of the season.  And Darling was replaced by a game Dave Wilson who was ready to shine after losing the battle for the number one job in pre-season camp.  Wilson was steady enough to lead Maine to a 2-2 tie with a tight, conservative defense.  While that point was the last one earned by Maine and has been followed by eight straight losses to some opponents that they should have emerged victorious against, BU has gone in the opposite direction taking four points in three of their four weekend series and playing to two exciting ties in a home and home against Northeastern, the team that had held BU at bay until the final game of the regular season before finally relinquishing its spot atop the standings the very day the regular season came to a close.

So let’s try to look at this series objectively.  Inside College Hockey, one of the three major national publications devoted solely to NCAA Hockey, just within the last 24 hours named its All Hockey East First Team players, and it is hard to argue with a single name on the list.  Colin Wilson, Kevin Shattenkirk, Mattie Gilroy, and Kieran Millan made up 4 of the 6 slots all from BU, and Viktor Stalberg of UVM and Brock Bradford of BC rounded out the squad, but truth be told Btadford has no business on that team – for a second forward slot as well should have been filled by another Terrier, either the rapidly improving Nick Bonino, or the sniper who benefits from the great playmaking of Wilson and Chris Higgins – Number 21 Joey Lawrence who is the team leaders in goals scored and second in the nation with thirteen Power Play goals.

The reason that BU is different this year from BU teams that have won conference titles in the past is because of the emergence of a second goal scoring line that is every bit as lethal as the first line.  Center Nick Bonino has been on a tear: having a five point evening in the penultimate game of the season and having been named Reebok’s Hockey East Player of the Month with 14 points and scoring in 8 of 9 games while leading BU to a 6-0-3 undefeated record over that time, and Senior Winger Brandon Yip now consistently scoring and reminding us of those flashes of brilliance he showed while earning Hockey East Rookie of The Year Honors as a freshman, including a Hat Trick in his final road game eclipsing the 100 point mark on his career, and Captain Forward John McCarthy as the workhorse on the line, regularly battling in the boards to keep the puck in the offensive zone and be persistent on the fore-check allowing Yip and Bonino to score with such aplomb.  Add to that the increasing load that freshman forwards Chris Connolly and Vinny Saponari have taken on, and we have three legitimate scoring lines. Luke Popko’s opening salvo in the clinching Providence game reminded everyone that BU doesn’t just dress a fourth line to sit on the bench.  And we have nine forwards and five defensemen who can all legitimately play on the Power Play with virtually little to no dropoff.  That is impressive.

With Strait still a question mark while rehabbing his leg from the injury in the UMASS series, Coach Parker is so confident in his blue-liners that he says only half-jokingly, “I am not sure Strait would win his spot back even if he is ready to go with the way Smolinsky has played in his absence.”  Gilroy and Strait (or Smolinsky) as one pair, Kevin Shattenkirk and Colby Cohen as the second pair, and David Warsofsky and stay-at-home NHL prototype blue-liner Eric Gryba are all so impressive that one NHL director of player personnel has told me he expects all six to not just make it to the NHL, but to be first and second defensive units at that level almost immediately after finishing (or leaving) school.

You really have to nitpick to find any flaws in BU’s game.  Going into the UMASS series I guess one complaint I could have had is that they had not yet come back to win a game when trailing by two goals after the first period, but that myth was shattered when BU had a third goal scored on them early in the second period and instead of tanking they instead scored six unanswered goals.  Their power play is tops in the nation and HE, while their PK is second in conference play by a couple tenths of a percentage point to Lowell BUT is right at the tops overall nationally when non-conference games are included.

And while there is some promise on the horizon in Maine’s feeble offense in that their three leading scorers Gustav Nyquist, Brian Flynn, and Tanner House (the only three players on the Maine Squad to reach 20 or more points) are Freshman, Freshman, and Sophomore respectively, and despite hitting a slump down the stretch Scott Darling seems to be the real deal as a goalie, but there is just too much to overcome for Maine to have a snowball’s chance in Miami of making a game of it on either night.

In their three previous meetings this season BU won at home 4-1, on the road 7-2, and tied the second day in Orono 2-2.  One of the things that speaks volumes to BU’s selfishness despite its star power is in its ability to spread the scoring around.  Colin Wilson, by many accounts the leading Hobey Baker Candidate in this year’s race, is actually 4th in goals scored on his team, and BU has 10 players with 20 or more points.

Look for BU to win both games easily, and to maybe even split the goaltending duties assuming that they win as easily as they ought to so as to have two elite goaltenders for the playoff run.  Also look for BU to be working on aspects of their game that have slipped a little of late (PK is down –need to work on that, Colin is not finishing as often as we’d like, stop taking so many penalties, and stop taking for granted our stick-handling prowess as we have had way too many turnovers in our own defensive zone simply being lazy on the first pass of the breakout).

Ever since Matt Gilroy, a Hobey Candidate and probably our best defenseman both on the ice and as an ambassador to the program, announced he was passing up 23-24 professional contracts to return for his senior season as a Captain himself, you had the feeling that this might indeed be The BU Squad that puts it all together.  The scary thing is even had Gilroy not returned, with the giant leaps that Shattenkirk and Strait have made since each had his trip to the worlds, coupled with Gryba’s consistency and Warsofsky’s emergence coming quicker than expected, and BU would still have the best defensive corps in the country SANS Gilroy.  Thankfully, that is only a hypothetical but it does bode well for next season.  BU has been remarkably healthy this season.  Sure, a lot of players are dealing with nagging injuries at this time of year, but to have Strait sit out for a second weekend as a precaution is our most significant injury this season of which to speak.  Couple that with goaltending that can steal games for you for the first time since we had Curry in the net, and I don’t see anybody (with the possible exception of a no longer intimidated Northeastern Huskies Team) even coming close to mounting a challenge against The Terriers in either The Hockey East Finals OR The NCAA tourney.  And I am writing using deductive reasoning, not letting my rooting interest come into play at all in my analysis of this series.

Still, by far and away the easiest series to pick

My prediction: BU in two, 6-0 and 6-1.

Scott C. Martineau is a contributing columnist to this site. If you have interest in adding him as a tweeter follower, his Twitter address is SCOTTCMARTINEAU

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Handicapping the 2009 Hockey East Quarterfinals: Another Perspective

#4 UVM vs. #5 University of Lowell
The University of Lowell River Hawks and The UVM Catamounts played to a perfect 1-1-1 draw in three games this season. Look at the games and not just the box scores from Lowell’s trip to Burlington only three weekends ago, in which they took three out of four points, and the game that they won they won handily and the tie could have easily resulted in a four point weekend had the River Hawks have had only the Catamounts and not the Refs as well as their opponent(s).

With the exception of two losses against a team that rivals any in the nation – Northeastern – Lowell has been hotter than a short order cook’s griddle in the last half of the Season, particularly in the last month of Conference play. Vermont has been steady, but has several holes in their game that if exploited will make followers of this series forget early and often which team has the Home ice ‘advantage’.

Lowell is one of the toughest outs in the league if not the country, and not to look ahead but I would much rather them having finished third or sixth than fifth as a BU supporter because: a) They are the only team that I favor to win as a road dog; and b) by being in the 4-5 series that sets them up to play BU in the semis, and honestly I think that with the exception of BU and NU, the Lowell River Hawks are playing at a level far better than the five other teams which make up the 3 through 8 seeds and the numbers back me up.
The players on the Lowell squad are a veteran bunch. Their roster is littered with physical Canadians who are no strangers to the long seasons of Canadian Junior hockey (11 having played in Ontario, with all but 2 veterans of the elite Ontario Junior Hockey League; and another three from the British Columbia Hockey League, making 14 of their players experienced in the physical type of play that generally comes to the forefront in playoff college hockey) , and that is a huge part of the reason that as other teams seem to be tiring by this team in their season’s Lowell is just hiding its stride, ready to peak. Guys like Nick Shaus and Captain Gary Bauers are players who are not intimidated easily – for that would have to mean that they can be intimidated at all – which they cannot. Couple that with workhorse forwards such as Scott Campbell, David Vallorani, and sniper Kory Falite (the only true finisher in that he is only player on team in their top 15 in scoring who has more goals than assists – and at a two to one margin, no less) and you have a formidable threat on any given night. The Lowell Squad is so balanced that it has eight players with 19 or more points – three of their top six in scoring are defenseman – led by blue-liner Maury Edwards, with 27 points overall and one of only three PLAYERS on the team that has double digits in goals. In the River Hawks, you have a scoring attack that does not rely heavily on a line or a pairing to get their goals. This team rivals only Northeastern in the SUM is significantly better than the whole of its parts category. Add to that the second best group of blue-liners in Hockey East, and you have a team who might not finish Grade A scoring chances pretty, but more often than not (although not as often as Coach Blaise MacDonald would like), finish they do. The two question marks that I see that might tilt the series for Vermont to win this series at home (incidentally, Vermont has not won yet in the two games they hosted Lowell at Gutterson, and Lowell failed to win the one matchup played at Tsongas) are a) turnovers, as Vermont’s Coach Kevin Sneddon and Lowell’s MacDonald both cited that the team that wins the turnover battle will have a huge upper hand; and b) post-season experience. Despite being new to Hockey East, Vermont made it to The Semis in Boston just last season whereas there has been a seven year draught since Lowell made it out of the quarterfinals. Playing for the pressure of the final weekend and a bid at the NCAA tourney might prove too much pressure on this Lowell team that hasn’t really played for anything in years, whereas UVM has experience winning Conference Tournament Series, even with their infantile status as the newborn to Hockey East play.

While I am not hiding the fact that I think Lowell will win this series, there is no doubt that the most dangerous player on the ice for either team is UVM Forward and Hobey Baker candidate Viktor Stalberg. The other column where the checkmark clearly has to go next to The Catamounts is Forward and Goal Scoring capability. Stalberg and fellow UVM forward Brian Roloff are the two most talented players in this series. However, while I would expect a lesser team to come out and shadow Stalberg in the way so many BU opponents shadowed Colin Wilson this season, I expect for Lowell to stick to fundamental defense and not to use anything gimmicky against Stalberg unless and until he shows that they need to do something drastic to shut him down, and I do not expect that to happen.. One reason I really like Lowell is they know that if they lose this series their season is over, while the same cannot be said about Vermont. But an even bigger reason I like Lowell so much in this series is the disparity in special teams. Lowell is first in conference play in the penalty kill and second in Power Play Conversion, while Vermont is abhorrent in Penalty Kill and mediocre in Power Play Conversion. Vermont gives up twice as many goals on the PK than does Lowell, 30 to 15, with the two teams taking almost an identical number of shorthanded situations in conference play making the example so vivid. This is the difference maker in the series, and this is the primary reason why I like the lower-seeded Lowell River Hawks to travel to the large but not Olympic-sized sheet at UVM and leave as the winners of the series.
I see this quarterfinal going into the books with a lot more confidence than I have in my pick in the UNH-BC series, and just shy of the confidence that I have in my Northeastern-UMASS pick. Not only do I look for Lowell to pull the ‘upset” by winning this series on the road at The Gut, I look for the River Hawks to win two straight (one close, one by at least three goals) and there will not be a need for a Sunday game as Lowell will be smiling on their bus trip home; hoping that BU has somehow gone three games so as to tire – anything for an edge – and knowing that they have just earned a berth in the Semis at The (TD Banknorth) Boston Garden. You better believe that Coach Blaise MacDonald (whose apprenticeship under Coach Jack Parker has proven invaluable) will waste no time, spending the long bus trip already preparing see how they might be able to throw the kitchen sink at the Terriers in the semis and somehow – they hope – escape their one gamer with a W and a birth in the Finals, as it is the only way that they keep their season alive. But that is getting way ahead of themselves; for now – Lowell should be satisfied being the only road team earning a spot in the Semis.

Scott’s Pick: Lowell in Two

#3 UNH vs. #6 Boston College
I know… this is the time of the year that Boston College realizes that if they don’t go on a double digit win streak they won’t be making what they now believe to be practically a rite-of-passage for The Eagles: A trip to The Frozen Four. But this isn’t your Older Brother’s BC Squad. In fact, it is not even your older Irish twin’s Eagles for although, just like in the case of Irish Twins, both The 2007-8 Eagles and The 2008-9 Eagles are remarkably similar on paper (subtract Hobey candidate Nathan Gerbe, insert redshirt Pre-Season All America Candidate Brock Bradford) and to stick with the analogy – less than twelve months removed from last year’s title run, this Eagle Team has not responded to Coach York’s easy demeanor with the press, calling a two point weekend (a split) against Northeastern ‘a turning point’. Yes, they have last year’s unlikely hero John Muse back manning the pipes, but perhaps he was indeed a one year wonder who should be playing baseball, the sport he went to BC with the intention of pursuing until the hockey gig last season ran into the start of baseball practice. Muse is a shadow of himself this season. Four times he has given up a game winning or game tying goal in the final minute of a game, and in the first Northeastern game last weekend he pulled off the rare double, giving up the game-tying goal with less than 30 seconds left, and then in OT he gave up the winning goal with 50 seconds left. Muse is clearly mired in a sophomore slump, but Coach York has either a belief in this kid no one else does, or an absolute fear of shaking things up for he did not even start Muse’s backup in the Consolation game of the Beanpot; which is practically an unwritten rule for the BC’S and BU’S of the world so that the backup can get a chance to say, ‘I played in the Beanpot’ as it is likely the highpoint of the backup’s career.
And yet you here all the pundits saying, ‘The one team I wouldn’t want to face at this time of year is an underachieving BC. For they are as talented as anybody and all they have to do is turn it on and they are suddenly a viable Frozen Four caliber team.” Really, just how many BC games have these experts watched this season. They seem to have a Matthew McGonaughey “Well alright!” too-cool-for-school attitude since the very beginning of the season I find this both ludicrous and offensive. Ben Smith has not only not picked up where he left off last season, rather he has exposed himself for just what a marginal player he is without a star on his line benefitting his game and his numbers putting no-look between his leg feeders on Smith’s tape without a defenseman or a goalie in position, for example, and Benn Ferriero has shown no signs of improvement and neither had Nick Petrecki, unless you count the number of cheap hits and PIMs increasing somehow showing a progression in his game.

So along with BC’s seeming lack of urgency when the rest of the Hockey World sees it, there is also the small matter of how are they going to win now that they are going to Durham to play The University of New Hampshire Wildcats on their Olympic-sized ice sheet at The Whittemore Center. Most teams tend not to win there … As a matter of fact, in a recent home and home versus Boston College, UNH indeed defended home ice at Whittemore and, for good measure, took the Conte forum game for a four point weekend sweep.

Before the season, when BC was number one before a puck had been dropped, Ben Smith and Benn Ferriero were expected to have Brock Bradford slide in and potentially be THE BIG THREE for BC of the 08-09 season. The truth of the matter is that the offensive trio of Peter LeBlanc, Mike Sislo, and oh yeah, first round draft pick James Van Riemsdyk are playing to their potential, and The Ben(n)s are regressing and Bradford is not even a fraction of the player, even if he has all the potential, that Gerbe ever was. Ergo, I don’t see how BC can expect to take two games at Whittemore in a single weekend. The BC forwards, along with young blood infusion like Cam Atkinson and Jimmy Hayes are unquestionably talented, and Muse and co. can occasionally play inspired hockey like they did on Saturday night at home versus a motivated Northeastern team that felt they had been given a death row reprieve when they managed to grab two points in a game they were thirty seconds away from getting none in only a night prior, and for that reason, and that reason alone, I figure that a team that has been to three Frozen Fours in the last four years will show some pride and at least take a game at UNH, but truth be told it will just be window dressing making what had the potential to be a history making year a little less abysmal as it will not look as if they just rolled over and gave up, but I see BC having very little to no chance at being able to steal a second game at UNH, and Coach York, usually the master of motivation with understated, easy going comments like the one he made to his team last season in the midst of a January slump when he said:” I am going to Denver the weekend of the Frozen Four because I have to attend a coaches conference. It is a shame that you guys won’t be joining me…” and the rest was history – he may have well been Knute Rockne. But York has not been able to get the pulse of this team going all the way back to the pre-conference schedule when his team was embarrassed by Notre Dame in a rematch of last year’s championship match. He kept saying we’re about to get it turned around or we’re on the verge and now The Eagles are a team that on paper still look solid, but can’t be counted on to take three points in a home and home, and thus expecting them to win two at one of the toughest venues to play a road game in (let alone two) just is beyond even what the paper version of BC is capable of achieving.

Series pick: UNH wins in three; would not be shocked if UNH wins in two
#2 Northeastern vs. #7 UMASS
Headline to the lead story on College Hockey News “Northeastern vs. Massachusetts comprise one of the more intriguing Best-of-3 series this weekend …” Huh? What am I missing here? I KNOW that UMASS took two of three against Northeasten this season, but the long and the short of it is that Northeastern wins games it is supposed to win. So much so, in fact, that it actually has hurt them in PWR which is not relevant for this debate except for pointing out one simple fact. Back on February 24, the last time that UMASS was still a TuC, or a Team with an RPI of 25 or better, Northeastern had a perfect record of 13-0-0 with zero losses to teams that were not in the RP1 Top 25. In other words, they don’t just win most of the games they are supposed to, they win all of the games they are supposed to.

So now UMass has slipped just outside the TuC, ergo no longer does Northeastern have an unblemished record against Teams not under Consideration, as UMASS falls into that latter category. And of the games between the two this season, none have been close, a 2 goal in a high scoring affair for UMASS at home, a two goal game in another high scoring match at UMASS with Northeasten getting the victory, and in the rubber match a 3 goal victory at Matthews with UMASS winning 4-1. What can you surmise from three games played in a 16 day period from the last Friday of January to February 14. NOTHING. The January 30th win by UMASS at UMASS on a day where Northeastern participated in The Beanpot Luncheon only hours before hopping a bus and losing at UMASS. I would have been surprised if they didn’t come out flat. The first full weekend of Hockey AFTER the Beanpot starting with a statement game from Northeastern at UMASS winning easily and letting the world know that they now know they can compete at that level. A GREAT WIN. The next day the second half of a home and home and UMASS blows Northeastern out of a game that they were never in from the beginning, SURPRISING.
We know Thiessen, we know Vitale, we know Toot Cahoon and his top players. So what can we validly look at to see if one team is obviously superior to the other? How about records against common opponents.
ADV  UMASS    OPPONENT           NU
PUSH 1-2-0 Boston University 0-2-2
NU      2-1-0 Maine                         3-0-0
NU      1-2-0 Mass.-Lowell           3-0-0
NU      1-2-0 Boston College        2-0-1
NU      1-2-0 Merrimack               3-0-0
NU      0-1-2 New Hampshire      1-1-1
NU      2-1-0 Providence              3-0-0
NU      0-2-1 Vermont                   2-1-0
PUSH 1-0-0 Rensselaer               1-0-0
Coach Cronin is arguably the hottest coach in the nation. Thiessen is a Hobey Baker Finalist. Northeastern has a better first line, a better second line, and a better third line.  ‘Nuff said.

Oh yeah, they also are the grittiest team in Hockey East and despite not having beaten our Terriers this season, they know after 130 minutes of electrifying tied hockey three weekends back that they can play with us, and in all likelihood will get to play us at least one more time, and depending upon the way the brackets are set up BU and NU could meet for a sixth time this season in Washington D.C. I certainly don’t see any team (including Notre Dame) other than each other knocking either BU or NU out of what I think will be a matchup of Destiny in The NCAAs. It will likely occur in the Frozen Four; I pray the brackets are set up so that it takes place in the NCAA Championship game.

Series Pick: Northeastern in two – likely giving up no more than 2 total goals.

For a different perspective, be sure to check out Joe’s 2009 Quarterfinal Preview and picks.

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Handicapping the 2009 Hockey East Quarterfinals

It’s tournament time in Hockey East!  The brackets are set and 8 clubs are set to do battle and see who will be making it to the Garden to be crowned Hockey East’s 25th tournament champion.  A preview of the Boston University / Maine series will be coming later on, so be on the lookout for that.  However, there are 6 other clubs that will be taking to the ice this weekend!  Let’s take a look at how those teams match up, and try to provide a bit of prediction on who I think will be playing on Causeway St. next weekend.

#2 Northeastern v. #7 Massachusetts

This is probably the one matchup that Northeastern did not want for  quarterfinal series.  The Minutemen currently hold the season series lead on NU, 2-1.  This includes a big win at Matthews that came less than a month ago.  Over the past few season the two clubs have developed some bad blood, playing some very intense games.

Offensively, I would give Masachusetts the edge.  Leading scorer James Marcou is always dangerous, and the top scorers for Massachusetts are very deadly.  That’s not to say Northeastern cannot score, but rather that the Minutemen have more guys at the top who will constantly be a threat.  NU will have to check Marcou, Berry, and Quirk very closely, as those guys can break out quickly.  Massachusetts also has a tendancy to come out big against teams that are in the top 10, with the small discrepency coming only against BU.

What ultimately will determine this series (in my opinion) is goaltending.  There, Northeastern has a very big edge, as Brad Thiessen is an absolute rock in net for the Huskies.  With the intensity ratched up that much more, I would take Thiessen over either of the UMass netminders.  Either Dainton or Meyers will have to steal a game for the Minutemen to win this series.  With the home crowd advantage at Matthews, I’m not sure that will happen.  It might go three games, but it seems to me that Notheastern really wants to get to the Garden for a potential rematch with BU.  As a Terrier fan, I’m not sure I like that idea that much, but in this series anyway, Northeastern takes care of business.

Predicted Winner: Northeastern

#3 New Hampshire v. #6 Boston College

Now this is a huge matchup of perennial Hockey East powerhouses. Of course, BC is currently on a down year, but there is no denying the talent that is on that Eagle squad.  However, they will be making their way up to the Whittemore center, certainly not a visitor friendly rink.  Oh.. and that New Hampshire squad is no slouch either.  Featuring 1st round pick James van Riemsdyk, this looks to be one of the most difficult quarterfinal matchups, with two teams that one could have picked to be playing in the championship game.

Offensively and defensively, the two clubs are virtually identical.  The only thing that separates the two is the record really.  New Hampshire was a much more opportunistic team throughout the season, and it definitely shows in their record.   However, both teams feature an identical 3-1 record in their past 4 games, with the latter two games for each club being against elite teams in Hockey East.  Just looking at the numbers does no good when trying to pick a winner.

In this series, I’d have to go with whatever team takes advantage first.  New Hampshire does have home ice advantage, but against a Jerry York coached team, that might not matter much.  It will likely ride on the goaltender who shuts the door on the other team better.  John Muse has been a workhorse for Boston College, and that might be their downfall here.  He has had little rest over the past two seasons, and UNH’s high powered offense will test him.  This series should go 3 games, as I don’t see a sweep being possible here.  This’ll be my upset series though… BC shocks UNH at home.  Last year, BC beat UNH when it mattered… and I think it’ll happen again.

Predicted Winner: Boston College

#4 Vermont v. #5 UMass-Lowell

The River Hawks travel to the Gut for a two game series this weekend.  Probably one of the most difficult road trips to make in Hockey East.  The Gut is always sold out, and the could should be loud and proud in their support of the Catamounts.

The River Hawks and Catamounts are very similar statistically, which seems like it’s a trend for most Hockey East teams.  The two clubs even split the season series.  My big concern for the Hawks is that they seem to be very unpredictable, playing very very well one night, and laying an egg the next night.  It doesn’t even seem to matter who they play… it all depends on which team comes to play.  A concern for Vermont is that their team defense hasn’t been as good as it’s been in previous years, and if their offense falters, they could be in for a long series.

In the end, it will come down to a matchup between UML’s goaltenders and the UVM offense.  Whichever is hotter should win this game, and I find it very hard to pick against the Cats, especially since they’re playing in Burlington.  The Cats make it back to the Garden, setting up a potential rematch against BU.  Revenge game, anyone?

Predicted Winner: Vermont

There you have it, predictions from three of the four quarterfinal series in Hockey East for 2009.  You heard it here first!  I think, anyway.  In any case, it should be a very entertaining weekend of hockey for all of the participating Hockey East schools.  Unfortunately, it is spring break for several of the schools, but that gives the more casual fan a much better chance to be able to catch one of these games.  So, if you’re looking for something to do this weekend and happen to be near one of the home schools, take a trip on by.  You should be able to catch some great college hockey.

For another perspective, be sure to check out Scott’s Preview and Picks for the 2009 Hockey East Quarterfinals.

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Game 36 Recap: BU 3, Providence 0

At the beginning of the season, no one would have expected the final Hockey East game to be as meaningful as it was.  While Hockey East is always a league that runs wire to wire, the matchup between Boston University and Providence College on Sunday had major implications…. it would determine the Hockey East Regular Season Champion. Read more

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